Brett Kavanaugh, a judge created by the Conservatives to reach the Supreme Court

Judge Kavanaugh opposes investigations of Presidents-in-Office (Reuters / JIM BOURG)
Judge Kavanaugh opposes investigations of Presidents-in-Office (Reuters / JIM BOURG)

Trump’s choice to replace pushes the court to a right-most majority. And there’s a bonus: is against the investigations of s-in-Office.

When announced that he was about to retire from the US Court less than a month ago, Donald Trump saw an opportunity to offer s the dream of a lifetime: to take advantage of this forced substitution to turn the on the right in a way so marked as it had not seen since the 30’s.

The first step was taken Monday night with the appointment of , a 53-year-old created in a s’ incubator launched in the late 1980s, thrown into the limelight during the impeachment process of Bill Clinton and supported by supporters of gun ownership and the fight against .

The second step is more complicated because it does not depend only on the White House. As the nomination has to be confirmed by the Senate, and since the Republican has only 50 senators to vote (due to John McCain’s absence due to illness), against 49 of the Democratic , Trump’s announcement also marked the start of a race against time. If Republicans can not be organized by November, and if Democrats regain a majority in the Senate in this month’s election, the s’ dream may be postponed.

A serious

On Monday night, during ’s live broadcast across the country , from the largest room in the White House, Donald Trump recalled one of the few predecessors he used to point out as an example, saying his choice regards “the legacy of Reagan. ”

“I do not ask questions about the personal opinions of a nominee. What matters is not the political opinion of a , but rather if he can put that opinion aside to do what the law and the Constitution require. to say, without any doubt, that I met such a person. ”

When he took the floor, Kavanugh praised his predecessor, , and strove to present himself as a man who respected diversity. He recalled that his mother, Martha , was a teacher at two “African-American majority” public schools in the 1960s and 1970s; said that, as a , most of her assistants “have been women”; and thanked the rector who hired him to teach at Harvard Law School: Elena Kagan, a Court Justice appointed by Barack Obama in 2010.

But ’s curriculum lacks presentations, both for his advocates and his critics. In the last two decades, this US-born has left behind him a mountain of decisions that define him as being much more than the man he will replace. was nominated by Reagan in 1987 as a but fled to the center and eventually took the role of arbiter between the four more colleagues and the other four more liberal.

With ’s departure and ’s entry (if the Senate confirms the nomination), the ceases to rely on ’s centrism on issues such as , gay marriage , the death penalty, or what remains of the discrimination. This balance was shaken by Neil Gorsuch’s appointment last year after Antonin Scalia’s death , and may even collapse if is confirmed – Gorsuch replaces an equally , who has kept his balance, but will replace a longer to the center, which unbalances the balance to the side of the s.

Although nominated by a , became instrumental in maintaining the right to as a national law in 1992 and to the decision that the right to marriage extends to same-sex couples in 2015 “In the same year, he once again joined his fellow Liberals in criticizing solitary confinement , and on other occasions helped approve restrictions on the death penalty.

Decisions by his replacement, , on cases, for example, are seen by the Democratic as signs that the Trump-appointed will ally himself with his four colleagues to reverse – or empty – legalization of . Last year, denied a teenage immigrant’s request for an , but the arguments he used also left s a little uneasy – unlike other colleagues who participated in the same ruling, did not say that the teenage immigrant does not have the constitutional right to terminate the pregnancy.

Accounts made, ’s exit and ’s possible entry “will fundamentally alter the court’s balance and jeopardize dozens of precedents,” the New York Times writes .

It is hard to say whether major decisions about , same-sex marriage or other issues that have divided s and liberals will return to the , but it is almost certain that the various interest groups will fight for parts of those laws to be reassessed – leaving them emptied and in practice ineffective.

Against White House investigations

And there is another aspect that leads the Democratic to want to bar ’s appointment with all his might. Despite being a leading reporter for the famous Starr report, which led to the impeachment of Bill Clinton in late 1998, said in 2009 that the s should be “free from prosecution and criminal investigations while in office, including interrogations by criminal prosecutors “.

An opinion that will certainly be debated during the confirmation process in the Senate, at a time when Trump is being investigated by special prosecutor Robert Mueller on suspicions of obstruction of justice and collusion with the Russian government.

“I believe that s should be excused from some of the burdens of common citizenship while they are in office. We should not overburden an incumbent with civil cases, criminal investigations, or criminal charges,” wrote in an article published in 2009 in Minnesota Law Review .

The incubator

If the Senate confirms ’s nomination, the becomes dominated by s in a way that has not been seen since the 1930s, Curt Levey, chairman of the Group for Justice , told The New York Times . Levey and other US right-wing figures underscore the efforts the s have made since the 1980s so that the US now has a generation of s – before that, in the image of what happened to , several s appointed by Republican s ended up making many decisions aligned with the Liberals.

“They have been fighting this trend for the past 30 years, and the announcement tonight is a stepping stone in the right direction. It is the first time we can say that we have even a court, at least since the 1930s,” he said. Curt Levey.

And it is likely that Trump will have at least one more opportunity to strengthen the group in the Court, a case that will gain even more if re-elected in 2020.

With the departure of , 81, the two oldest s are liberal – Ruth Ginsburg, 85, and Stephen Breyer, 79. In the group of five s, with , the eldest is Clarence Thomas, 70, and two of them are under 53 years old.

Confirmation until November

In such a polarized environment as the American Congress, one would expect all Republican Senators to approve ’s nomination, and all Democrats would vote against it. But the bills of the senators on both sides are not limited to partisan loyalties, not all have equal doses of conservatism – an equation that is further complicated in the election year.

Since last year, at the initiative of the Republican , a Court can be confirmed with a simple majority of 51 – before that a majority of 60 in 100 was needed.

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This year, Republicans have only 50 of their 51 active senators because John McCain remains sick. This leaves two avenues for ’s approval: either the holds its 50 senators together, or gets the Democratic the votes it needs to overturn possible dissent.

Despite the expected difficulties, both paths are viable.

On the Republican side there are at least three doubting senators – Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine) because they are supporters of rights, and Rand Paul (Kentucky) and Jeff Flake (Arizona) who, for opposed the nominations of Trump. Joe Manchin (West Virginia), Joe Donnelly (Indiana) and Heidi Heitkamp (North Dakota) last year approved the appointment of Neil Gorsuch and are involved this year in fights over the past year. reelection in states where Trump crushed Clinton in the 2016 ial election.

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