Reasons to expect the S&P 500 to break the negative September seasonal pattern

Historically, the month of September is usually the worst month of the year for the North American Stock Exchange. Despite this, if we dig a little deeper into the tangle of numbers and figures, we can better understand why investors should not be so pessimistic for the current month of September.

And it is that since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a fall of -1.05%, but is that when the S&P 500 has risen more than 5% until the month of August (as is the case this year), the average in September it was positive (+ 0.36%), and the gain in the rest of the year is + 4.51%.

You already know that this is only numbers and statistics, it is not science, so you have to take it simply for what it is, a reference more.

Crecit Suisse is optimistic with the S&P 500 and hopes that 2019 will be as good as it is in 2018, even if we do not see new tax cuts. Specifically, it expects to end 2019 at 3,350 points, which implies an increase of 11.5% from the area that expects to end this year, the 3,000 points. Yes, they recognize that the next 12-15 months will be particularly difficult for investors, with the threat of reversing the yield curve, the November elections and the Fed’s tightening. But despite these risks, they believe that the Solid economic growth and the profits of the companies will be enough to boost the US equity market.

On the other hand, investors also remain optimistic, although the bullish sentiment registered a slight decrease in the last week. According to the weekly survey of AAII, the bullish sentiment fell from 43.5% to 42.22%. On the other hand, the bearish sentiment accelerated slightly, going from 24.39% to 26.3%.

While it is true that low unemployment and a strong economy means that an increase in interest rates on September 26 is assured (the futures of the Fed funds point to a 95% probability of increasing 25 basis points to a range of 2% -2.25%), low remuneration is one of the reasons why investors are not completely convinced that the Federal Reserve will meet its forecast for a fourth rate increase in the month of December. Wages grow moderately, even when the unemployment rate is close to the lowest since 1969. There is also a growing trade war, turmoil in emerging markets and the risk that Fed rate hikes will put pressure on yields. short-term Treasuries above long-term rates,

In the previous graph we can see the probabilities that the FED will raise interest rates in its next meetings:

September 2018: 95% November 2018: 2.70%

December 2018: 73%

January 2019: 4%

March 2019: 56%

May 2019: 12%

June 2019: 37%

But apart from all that has been said, we must closely follow the decisions of President Trump, since he threatened a few days ago to impose another 267,000 million dollars in tariffs on China, which would be added to the 200,000 million that he is already preparing. It is not a trivial issue, since in the final case that it were to impose all these tariffs, they would cover the total value of the Chinese goods imported by the United States. China, of course, threatened to take the necessary attack measures.

But here Trump’s maelstrom does not end, he also threatened to impose tariffs on Canada in full negotiations on the new NAFTA agreement, a full-blown blackmail that goes to say that if they do not accept the conditions of the new treaty, they will impose tariffs, and that that Canada is one of the main allies and commercial partners of the United States. With friends like that who needs enemies, right?

But let’s go back to the S&P 500. In the chart you can clearly see its bullish trend and above all a detail that I consider fundamental and that would answer the question that many investors ask about that we do not see any cuts in the escalation of the North American index.

The answer is in the graph. Look, the green squares. It is that the S&P 500 reached overbought levels (in January) and for that reason there were falls of a certain intensity. But is that since January can be seen in the graph that has not become overbought, so it falls within the “normal” that the increases continue to prevail.

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